Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings: We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ~35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in person

Understanding the clinical spectrum of complicated Plasmodium vivax malaria: a systematic review on the contributions of the Brazilian literature

The resurgence of the malaria eradication agenda and the increasing number of severe manifestation reports has contributed to a renewed interested in the Plasmodium vivax infection. It is the most geographically widespread parasite causing human malaria, with around 2.85 billion people living under risk of infection. The Brazilian Amazon region reports more than 50% of the malaria cases in Latin America and since 1990 there is a marked predominance of this species, responsible for 85% of cases in 2009. However, only a few complicated cases of P. vivax have been reported from this region. A systematic review of the Brazilian indexed and non-indexed literature on complicated cases of vivax malaria was performed including published articles, masters' dissertations, doctoral theses and national congresses' abstracts. The following information was retrieved: patient characteristics (demographic, presence of co-morbidities and, whenever possible, associated genetic disorders); description of each major clinical manifestation. As a result, 27 articles, 28 abstracts from scientific events' annals and 13 theses/dissertations were found, only after 1987. Most of the reported information was described in small case series and case reports of patients from all the Amazonian states, and also in travellers from Brazilian non-endemic areas. The more relevant clinical complications were anaemia, thrombocytopaenia, jaundice and acute respiratory distress syndrome, present in all age groups, in addition to other more rare clinical pictures. Complications in pregnant women were also reported. Acute and chronic co-morbidities were frequent, however death was occasional. Clinical atypical cases of malaria are more frequent than published in the indexed literature, probably due to a publication bias. In the Brazilian Amazon (considered to be a low to moderate intensity area of transmission), clinical data are in accordance with the recent findings of severity described in diverse P. vivax endemic areas (especially anaemia in Southeast Asia), however in this region both children and adults are affected. Finally, gaps of knowledge and areas for future research are opportunely pointed out